The monsoon, El Niño and La Niña: why June rainfall matters
Tap a highlighted term — or any word — for a quick explanation.
The southwest monsoon, which sweeps across India between June and September, delivers roughly three-quarters of the country's annual rainfall. Because so much farming still depends on rain, the monsoon's timing and strength ripple through food prices, rural incomes and even overall economic growth.
Forecasting it is partly a story about the Pacific Ocean. The India Meteorological Department watches the El Niño–Southern Oscillation, a see-saw of ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific. Its warm phase, El Niño, tends to suppress the Indian monsoon, while its cool phase, La Niña, is generally associated with a stronger, wetter season.
In 2026 forecasters have been tracking a shift toward La Niña conditions, which would be encouraging for the monsoon after recent volatility. But the link is not guaranteed — local factors and other ocean patterns also matter — so the IMD updates its outlook through the season rather than relying on a single prediction.
Why it matters
The monsoon sits at the crossroads of GS1 (geography — climate) and GS3 (agriculture, economy, disaster management). Understanding ENSO and the IMD's role is high-yield, and the monsoon's link to inflation and rural demand makes it a strong mains connector.
Test yourself
1. The southwest monsoon provides about what share of India's annual rainfall?
2. Which agency forecasts the monsoon in India?
3. Which phase is generally linked to a stronger monsoon?
4. ENSO is a pattern in which ocean?
Your notes
Source: explainme.today